Notwithoutawarrantmister: foreclosure report

A press release from LPS' Mortgage Monitor Report shows Foreclosure Inventory Rising for 5th Straight Month

The November Mortgage Monitor report released by Lender Processing Services, Inc. (LPS) shows that the volume of loans moving to REO continued to drop as moratoria further delayed foreclosure sales. While the 90+ delinquency category has steadily declined, the number of loans moving to seriously delinquent status beyond 90 days far outpaced the number of foreclosure starts. Nearly 2.2 million loans are 90 days or more delinquent but not yet in foreclosure.

Foreclosure inventories also continued to rise for the fifth straight month as delinquent accounts are referred for foreclosure, but the sale of foreclosure properties continued to decline. When compared to January 2008 levels, the foreclosure inventory of Jumbo Prime loans is nearly seven times higher; the inventory of Agency Prime loans is nearly six times higher; and the foreclosure inventory of Option ARM loans is approaching five times the inventory in January 2008.

The report also shows that one-third of loans that are 90 days or more delinquent have not made a payment in a year; however, the number of new problem loans declined nearly 5.4 percent from October, which is opposite of the seasonality trend that typically impacts new delinquencies this time of year. Self-cures for loans one to two months delinquent increased in November to a six-month high.

In the month of November, 261,153 loans were referred to foreclosure, which represents a 0.7% month-over-month decline. The total number of delinquent loans is nearly 2.1 times historical averages - and foreclosure inventory is currently at 7.7 times historical averages.

As reported in LPS' First Look release, other key results from LPS' latest Mortgage Monitor report include:

Total U.S. loan delinquency rate: 9.02 percent
Total U.S. foreclosure inventory rate: 4.08 percent
Total U.S. non-current* loan rate: 13.10 percent
States with most non-current* loans: Florida, Nevada, Mississippi, Georgia, New Jersey
States with fewest non-current* loans: North Dakota, South Dakota, Alaska, Wyoming, Montana

Charts From The Report

The report is 34 pages long. Inquiring minds may wish to give it a closer look. Here are a few select charts.

click on any chart for sharper image

Delinquent and Foreclosure Rates by Month

Total Delinquency Percent Excluding Foreclosures

Total Foreclosure Percent By Product

Foreclosure Increase Compared to January 2008

Loan Cures

Serious Delinquencies

Foreclosure Starts vs. Serious Delinquencies

While there are some welcome trends in direction, actual foreclosures are lagging. The pent-up need to foreclose is huge.

Moreover, mortgage rates have rising nearly a full percentage point in the last 45 days. This will put a damper on already depressed home sales, making it harder to unload inventory.

Look for months of inventory to soar in the upcoming months with continued declines in home prices. Contrary to what most think, falling prices are a good thing. Home prices need to fall to a point low enough where genuine demand kicks in.

Foreclosure moratoriums are counterproductive and exacerbate existing problems.

Mike "Mish" Shedlock
http://globaleconomicanalysis.blogspot.com
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I generally agree with yoru statement, all the tricks the FED did to print hosuing dollars are done now, now people have to bring real money, and that means wages. However I disagree with statement "businesses competing with foreign wages CANNOT pay higher wages to American workers". Businesses overpay their CEOs and upper management all the time (boards are made up of cronies, not directors working in best interest of stockowners) and big US businesses are generally making high profits and have record cash reserves. So businesses CAN afford to pay workers high wages, but rather, they simply WON'T because they do not have to (no laws, unions etc to force them) and the WON'T because unlike the waste of over-priced salaries at high-end of coroporate ladders, business are not so stupid and wasteful and low-end and they keep low and middle workers wages as low as they can or they outsource.

But just so you know in real world there is an alternative ( not one you will ever see in US due to our politics and people assumptions like yours) look at Germany. They are an exporting machine. Their companies are very competitive in world market AND their worker wages and benefits are much higher than US. They have higher horuly salaries, their workers get 6 weeks vacation from get go, etc.. Also, they are fairly heavily regulated, their companies are held to high safety standards, high worker fairness standards, and tough environmental standards and also their companies do a lot with expensive alternative energy.

So in my mind there are at least two ways to for a countries companies to be competitve on world market, China or Germany, the only option is NOT China and depressed wages and weak currency.

Again and again, I see smart people assuming we must just do a China to compete, low wages, weak currency, trash the environment, peel back regulations that keep workers safe and keep work place fair. Its like Germany's example does not enter our consciousness. No way we can have a strong social safety net, treat enviroment well, have a strong currency, pay workers well, regulate businesses to ensure fairness and still compete, pay not attention to Germany.

It may not be easy for US to replicate what is working for Germany, primarily simply because most in US media and culture has it so we don't even know it that at least one coutnry is already proven it is possible, but it is crazy not to at least look at what they are doing and see if maybe we could strive for something closer to them. Germany competes and grows and German workers benefit. Germans model is very good for the common wealth, and yet, all we can fixate on is China.

We see same phenomen in business. There are some companies that are very successful and treat their workers much better than average, while other companies see their only way to success is to treat low end workers as badly as possible and to overcompensate upper management. See simply Costco vs. Sam's club.

Stop self-limiting, we can be a globally competitive country and have a solid middle class and have clean air and water, safe workplaces. But we won't if we let crony upper management of US companies decide everything in their interest, because clearly, sh%^ting on workers and over-compensating themselves and their friends, corrupting our government for their purposes is what they will keep doing unless we fight for something better.

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Tuesday, December 28, 2010

foreclosure report

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